Vote of confidence: "I wanted this test of truth": what to remember from François Bayrou's general policy speech before the Assembly that is preparing to overthrow him

The Prime Minister spoke for about 45 minutes, holding his government accountable in a somber and alarmist tone, in a chamber that alternated between calm and moments of agitation.

"This test of truth as head of government, with the consent of the President of the Republic, is something I wanted," Mr. Bayrou declared from the outset.

"Some of you, the majority, probably the most sensible, thought it was unreasonable, that it was too great a risk." But "the greatest risk was not to take it, to let things continue without anything changing, to play politics as usual ," Mr. Bayrou justified himself.

Because in the face of debt, "our vital prognosis is at stake, on which our State, our independence, our public services, our social model depend" , Mr. Bayrou insisted.

Then, fatalistically, he told the deputies: "You have the power to overthrow the government" but not "to erase reality. " Summoning De Gaulle and Mendès-France, he denounced a "conjunction of forces" united to deliver France to "tohu-bohu" by overthrowing him.

Barring any dramatic turn of events, the Béarnais, appointed in December 2024 after a showdown with Emmanuel Macron, will become the first head of government of the Fifth Republic to face a vote of confidence on Monday . Less than a year after Michel Barnier was overthrown by a motion of censure.

"It's a cop-out," accused the president of the socialist group, Boris Vallaud, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Tondelier watched the session from the stands.

All eyes are on Emmanuel Macron, who is once again looking for a prime minister, the third since no majority emerged in the National Assembly after its dissolution in June 2024.

After Senate President Gérard Larcher on Friday, he met with National Assembly President Yaël Braun-Pivet on Monday morning. The dissolution of the Assembly was not discussed during these meetings , according to parliamentary sources.

"No regrets"

Faced with the announced vetoes from the left and the far right, the centrist knows that his tenure at Matignon is over. He invited his ministers to "a convivial moment" on Rue de Varenne in the evening, according to his entourage.

These nine months at the helm of the government have been marked by the Betharram affair, a failed pension conference, and few significant bills. He assures us that he has "no regrets."

As for questions about an orchestrated departure to get into orbit for 2027, one of his closest associates, Marc Fesneau, promised on TF1 that "he did not do all this to have the presidential election in perspective", but to "be faithful to the commitments made to the French people".

Negotiations to replace him are already well underway, in view of the imperative of the 2026 budget. Several dates also argue for a short vacancy: the "Block Everything" mobilizations on September 10, the union mobilizations on the 18th, or even the decision on Friday by the Fitch agency which could downgrade the French debt rating.

In the race for a successor, the Socialist Party has placed itself at the center of the game, with Olivier Faure declaring himself "ready" for Matignon. An offer of services repeated by Boris Vallaud from the podium of the Assembly.

But while Emmanuel Macron has asked the leaders of the government camp to " work" with the Socialists, few in his entourage believe he will appoint the first secretary of the Socialist Party, who rejects the idea of ​​a "joint" government with Macronists.

And the leader of the Republicans, Bruno Retailleau, warned: "out of the question" of accepting a socialist Prime Minister.

"Sacrifice"

Even on the left, there is some grumbling: "I don't believe for a minute that Emmanuel Macron intends to appoint a government to Matignon aimed at implementing a policy of breaking with Macronism," LFI coordinator Manuel Bompard mocked on franceinfo.

More likely, therefore, is the negotiation of a non-censorship agreement by a right-wing or centrist personality.

"We need stability. And the most stable thing is the common ground that dialogues with the socialists," says a close friend of the president.

Several names are circulating for Matignon: ministers Sébastien Lecornu (Armed Forces), Gérald Darmanin (Justice), Catherine Vautrin (Labor and Health), Éric Lombard (Economy), the LR president of Hauts-de-France Xavier Bertrand, the former head of diplomacy and ex-socialist Jean-Yves Le Drian...

The National Rally is pushing for new early legislative elections, which it says it can win this time.

Marine Le Pen - whose appeal hearing in the MEP assistants case that resulted in her being ineligible at first instance will be held from January 13 to February 12, 2026 - has said she is ready to "sacrifice" her mandate as an MP to bring her party to Matignon.

For its part, La France Insoumise is demanding the resignation of Emmanuel Macron or his dismissal, with its deputies expected to submit a motion to this effect.